In-Stat says that WLAN switches will become more prevalent, but not as stand-alone devices: As Mobile Pipeline explains it, Ethernet switches will increasingly incorporate WLAN functions making the use of thin access points (most radio intelligence) a given but the centralized functions won't require specialized hardware. The article specifically notes that Aruba and Trapeze may face difficulties on their own; Airespace was acquired by Cisco.
There's another course for Aruba and Trapeze and similar companies to take, one that I think we're seeing the early directions toward. Instead of selling centralized hardware and specialized APs, move to centralized software that runs on commodity PCs that integrators and VARs can configure. The value would move entirely to the switching software. Aruba and Trapeze's SLAPP proposal is one step in that direction for removing specialized requirements from APs; the next step would be to agree on a standard featureset with extensions that could loaded by individual switches.
Do we really believe that these centralized WLAN Switching functions with dumb AP will survive?
How about the new self-configuring/routing Mesh/MIMO AP with dual radios (each with a/b/g chips)? Seems to me they take care of most issues we'd run into in deploying, upgrading and managing a WLAN network in an enterprise. This gets even better when IEEE agrees on a 802.11n solution.
Intel and Microsoft will determine where the future of WLAN will go and Cisco will return to their network side.
My prediction is that Intel will build new motherboards and chips that integrate either a UWB or 802.11n radio and combine with a Microsoft based software mesh routing and Airgo MIMO antenna array to address both handheld devices (portable processing) as well as replacing the wired LAN (copper completely).
Jacomo