I wrote about the inevitable, but slow decline of dial-up modems in this week's Economist (paid sub.): The article was sparked when I read a prediction a few months ago that the UK would have almost no dial-up lines in place in just a few years. I wondered if that were true. After speaking to a dozen people inside and outside of the industry, I believe it is; we in the US, however, will have millions of dial-up modems still employed and probably hundreds of thousands of dial-up lines at ISPs.
I also heard repeatedly a delightful statement: modem users tend to be elderly, rural, or contrary--the last of which is a great category. It's people who think a modem is good enough, or have concerns about always-on connectivity. The contrary will stick with narrowband much longer than the rest of us.