I wrote about the inevitable, but slow decline of dial-up modems in this week's Economist (paid sub.): The article was sparked when I read a prediction a few months ago that the UK would have almost no dial-up lines in place in just a few years. I wondered if that were true. After speaking to a dozen people inside and outside of the industry, I believe it is; we in the US, however, will have millions of dial-up modems still employed and probably hundreds of thousands of dial-up lines at ISPs.
I also heard repeatedly a delightful statement: modem users tend to be elderly, rural, or contrary--the last of which is a great category. It's people who think a modem is good enough, or have concerns about always-on connectivity. The contrary will stick with narrowband much longer than the rest of us.
You get affordable broadband out to my house and I will drop the dial-up in an instant. Neither Time-Warner nor Verizon will do it. They don't even have nay plans to do so in the future.
No doubt there were times in the past when a poll like this would have shown a certain percentage of the population still 1) using horses & buggies - didn't trust automobiles, or couldn't afford one; 2) sending letters instead of phoning - didn't have access to a phone, or see a need for such "rapid" communication; 3) using kerosene lanterns instead of light bulbs - no electricity access yet (everyone would prefer light bulbs to kerosene); 4) typewriters - "why bother with computers, they're expensive and hard to use;" 5) payphones - cell phones too expensive ...
In time, most users end up adopting new technology; if it is priced low enough to entice new users and draw them in, you have rapid and mass adoption...in the US, however, we seem to miss this lesson when it comes to broadband...I bet most of the die-hard dial-up adherents fall in the category of "can't get broadband" and a relative few actually prefer dial-up...
That hurts that dial-up is fading out in Britain and we are holding on to it ... Ouch!
I enjoyed the article Glenn -- especially about the bits regarding nostalgia. Although I hated the glacial speed of them at the time, I kind of miss the chip, squart, tweet of them! Somehow broadband seems so, hmmm, sterile?
TDS Telecom, my local phone companym, promised me full DSL service by January 2000. I'm still waiting. Time-Warner won't run cable through unless there are 10 customers per mile, minimum. There are 4 houses between my house and the nearest cable, 1.1 miles away. Wireless internet? The wireless companies seem only interested in serving urban areas that already have cable, DSL, and/or local wi-fi. If they were to open their eyes, they could drive non-Bell local phone companies completely out of business...