The real timetable for third-generation CDMA starting to emerge: Yesterday, Verizon Wireless explained that their 1xEvDO (400 to 800 Kbps with peak 2.4 Mbps theoretically) would be tried out in San Diego and Washington, D.C., but they made no promises about national deployment -- yet. They're testing pricing and real-world service.
This story above shows that, as Sprint PCS told me yesterday, their 1xEV-DV (data/voice) won't really be deployed for two to three years, but now they're committed to it. This timetable seems much more realistic on several fronts. First, Sprint PCS now has an intermediate plan: unlimited 2.5G plus Wi-Fi. Second, the cost and timetable isn't absurd. They have the spectrum, the equipment exists, and they know how long it might take. Third, the adoption curve for laptops with advanced wireless communication options benefits the two-to-three-year deployment. By that time, Intel and every Wi-Fi maker will have integrated cell/Wi-Fi/other-flavor cards or mini-PCI. Everyone will be primed for 3G.
Pricing still remains in question, of course, and Wi-Fi will have primed everyone as well for cheaper high-speed service. If you charge, say, $22 per month for unlimited national hot spot Wi-Fi usage, it becomes hard to charge, say, $250 per month for unlimited slower ubiquitous 3G usage. You've trained your customers to pay less.