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« A Linksys' True Colors | Main | 1.4 Billion Cell Phones Waiting to Be Entertained »

July 17, 2003

Past Performance Predicting Future Results

TechDirt tears apart post hoc reasoning in analysts reports on the "failure" of hot spots: TechDirt wisely describes why reports that show that people aren't using hot spots aren't a good predicter of whether people will use in the future because the analysts don't provide a case for the low uptake. Couple that with the hockey stick upswing in usage I'm hearing and Boingo's drop in price, and I think we have a different story than the one the analysts perpetuate.

Mike Masnick also notes that he doesn't have a subscription to any hot spot network. Neither do I. Don't be shocked.

I travel about a week out of every six to eight, usually to one destination. I leave from Seatac (Wayport, and thus Boingo, iPass, GRIC, etc.). I fly into Newark (soon AT&T and by extension Wayport, etc.), San Francisco (T-Mobile, still not open to other vendors despite agreement), San Jose (Wayport, but too small an airport for my needs), and Boston (Logan's misguided "pay us and don't make money" RFP just out).

I use a Mac, thus no support from aggregators (yet). I don't like Starbucks coffee much (too burnt for my taste). Everywhere I go there's free wireless, including the coffeeshop 10 blocks from my office. I have Wi-Fi at home and at my office. When I'm at conferences, I typically get free Wi-Fi either in the press room or speaker room. In the hotels I stay in, they either have no service or wired only.

So tell me where in that equation would a subscription help? I've probably spent a grand total of $75 in the last 12 months on Wi-Fi access. What would tip me over? Roaming, seamless roaming. 2.5G/Wi-Fi service plans. More airports. Mac Boingo client.

Any of those factors could pull $20 or $30 out of my pocket each month -- and the pockets of somewhere between 5 and 10 million other business travelers who travel at my frequency with a laptop who are aching for better service. Any takers?

5 Comments

I'm with you, Glenn. There are so many providers, I'd rather pay-as-I-go than tie myself into a subscription plan that may or may not cover all the places I go. So far, I think I've paid T-mobile the most money over the last year or so...mebbe 50 bucks in airports and Starbucks (I don't drink coffee...but many of my friends do, so I tend to up there a lot for "meetings"). I'm certain that I'll probably pay ransom to the airlines if I get on a plane that has the service available.

I agree completely that the existing sales are absolutely not predicter of future use, though I don't believe the WISPs will ever see much revenue. Airports (and planes) can sustainably charge, but that may be about it.

No one at WiFinder has a hotspot subscription either. We have all happily bought pre-paids from S&S and T-Mobile, but that's about it. Where we hang out and telework, there is simply too much free access -- much of it commercial. That includes my living room in Holland. We will see if mobilander.nl is able to start charging in September as they claim.

Exactly!

I don't travel as often as you do -- and catching email a couple of times a day isn't worth $9.95 a day.

Between my home, my office, about half of my clients, and the local coffee shop chain, Dunn Bros. I'm usually covered.

Like you, if there were roaming coverage that included some cell-type and 802.11b/g coverage, that might be worth something!

John

Good comments. I wonder what incentive Boingo or other non-T-Mobile providers would have to offer this roaming. Wouldn't folks just sign-up with T-Mobile because they offer the biggest/widest network at every-corner Starbucks and Borders and then be able to roam thru Boingo territory?

While Starbucks isnt the best coffee, its good enough and ubiquitous enough to make me consider switching to T-Mobile cellular just for their $20/mo hotspot feature. (cell coverage is almost identical to ATT).

I have to say I have been a T-mobile cellular customer for a longtime (VoiceStream and before) and have also been a HotSpot user for a long time. I now have a cellplan which is unlimited GPRS, 5000 cell minutes and included Wifi. My coverage (excluding wifi) roams to Europe and although GPRS is slow its got broad coverage. This is all a step in the right direction..... I think that this will tend like cell plans to drop in price and add more included features.

Now if only I could get a device that does all three.... maybe later this year!

CB